A Few Stats

I pulled the data from the 2008 results for a little amateur analysis. Primarily I am using this to establish my goals based on others' performances in the race. I know that I won't finish first, but I don't want to finish last either. This can help me produce a realistic measure of how well I can expect to perform.

First, a look at the curve of average times:

As you can see, it is a fairly normal distribution, slightly skewed to the right. My goal is to finish the race in the top 50%, or about 6 hours. If I were to calculate the average (median) for each leg of the race, it would be a 44:08 swim, a 2:56 bike (19 MPH average), and a 1:59:44 run (9:09 minute mile). I think that I can do that. Perhaps a little faster on the run, but it's hard for me to say.

Now, this brings up the question of what training is most important. What I'd like to do is to look at the correlation between the final position of each contestant compared to their performance in each individual leg. So it should stand to reason that I should focus more of my time on the leg with the most correlation to their overall position in the race.

Scatter plot time:

Quick conclusion here. (I can't get any specific correlation scores because I only am working from Excel ... t-score, maybe? High school was so long ago ...) There is a fairly low correlation during the participants' place during the swim and their final position in the competition, except at the extremes (i.e. the first and last places).

The correlation when you get into the cycling and running portions becomes more pronounced. It looks stronger in the cycling than in the running, but that is entirely observational, not scientific. This would make sense considering cycling is the longest section, both by distance and by time.

It then stands to the voice of reason (or at least to the little voice in my head, which is often entirely unreasonable) that more time should be spent training on cycling than on the other two, then on running, and then on swimming.

What else is interesting about this data is that the overall winner did not win any one of the categories, although I am going to bet that this is due to faulty data. For example, the data set says that the fastest runner was a 46-year-old Utah woman who ran 4:50 miles, although she finished in 684th place and only biked at 13.4 MPH. (This would mean that until the running portion, she was in 943rd place - 5 spots ahead of last place - and then burst ahead at sub-five-minute miles, passing a total of 359 people before crossing the finish line. If that were the case, she would have shattered the women's record for a half marathon by more than 3 minutes. Call me a cynic, but I think something's going on there.)

How far I've come

This is a brief list of accomplishments since I started my training (informal as it may be).

• Rode my bike to Boston (250 miles total, over a course of 3 days).
• Rode my bike to Philadelphia and back (90 miles each way over a course of 2 days).
• Rode my bike to Bradley Beach, NJ and back (90 miles each way over 2 days, averaging 18 MPH on road)
• Ran 5.2 miles in Central park at a pace of 7.07 minutes per mile.
• Ran 13.3 miles at a pace of 8:30 minutes per mile.
• Swam and didn't drown. (I did this in Astoria Pool until it closed for the summer.)

I also wanted to provide these before and after pictures to give you an idea of where I am not from where I started. Not that it really should matter all that much, but I thought it might be a good resource for an infomercial some time.

Where I'm coming from

As background information, this is a blog that I hope to maintain between now and June 2009 as I train for the Boise Half Ironman, AKA the Boise 70.3.

Going back a little ways, I entered a biggest loser competition at work about 6 months ago. I started to run on a more regular basis and started to ride my bike to work. My excercise regimen then developed from there, into things like preparing for a half marathon and riding my bike long distances (like to Boston, and to and from Philadelphia).

About two months ago, I decided that I should take it a step further and made it a goal to participate in a Half Ironman. I figure that would make me half of an Ironman, which is better than not being an Ironman at all. I wanted to make sure that I had plenty of time to train for it, so I found one that would be about a year down the road: the Boise 70.3, in my old stomping grounds.

It is referred to a 70.3 because that's how many miles are covered from start to finish: 1.2 mile swimming, 56 mile biking, and 13.1 miles running.

This blog will track my progress. Wish me luck.